A recent study published by the EU Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) adds important nuance to the growing consensus that shifting towards healthier, more plant-based diets can significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Europe’s food system. While the climate benefits of lower livestock production, particularly reduced methane emissions, are well documented, the JRC analysis highlights less visible but potentially significant impacts on soils, a critical yet often overlooked component of the climate equation.
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Using a combination of the MAGNET economic model and the DayCent biogeochemical model, the study assesses the long-term impacts of dietary shifts aligned with the EAT-Lancet recommendations across the EU and the UK. The results suggest that reduced livestock production leads to lower inputs of organic carbon and nitrogen from manure, alongside a contraction of permanent grassland. As a consequence, soils could experience substantial losses of soil organic carbon (SOC), averaging 14 Mg CO₂e per hectare at EU level by 2100 and reaching up to 50 Mg CO₂e per hectare in livestock-intensive regions.
The study also points to a complex picture for nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions. Changes vary significantly across regions, influenced by land-use change and, in some cases, increased reliance on synthetic nitrogen fertilisers to sustain crop yields. This finding is particularly relevant in the context of EU climate and soil strategies, where nitrogen management remains a key challenge.
Importantly, the JRC underlines that these soil-related trade-offs are not inevitable. Afforestation of land released from agricultural production could offset around half of the projected soil carbon losses by 2100. When carbon stored in above-ground biomass is included, afforested areas could even deliver net CO₂ removals at the European scale. In addition, soil conservation practices such as no-till farming, cover cropping, and improved nutrient management can play a decisive role in preserving soil carbon stocks.
For the Safer Phosphates Foundation, these findings reinforce a central message: climate-smart food system transitions must be accompanied by equally ambitious soil and nutrient policies. Ensuring adequate, efficient and low-contaminant nutrient inputs is essential to maintain soil health, limit unintended emissions and safeguard long-term agricultural productivity. As the EU advances its climate, food and soil agendas, an integrated approach that aligns diet, land use and fertiliser policy will be crucial to delivering genuine and lasting environmental benefits.
More information on the publication is available at:
MICHAILIDIS, V., LUGATO, E., PANAGOS, P., FREUND, F. and ABALOS, D., Impact of healthy diet shifts on soil greenhouse gas emissions across Europe, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 31, 11, 2025, p. e70624, WILEY, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.1111/gcb.70624, JRC143000.