Food systems worldwide are facing increasing pressure from climate extremes, geopolitical conflicts, pandemics, and economic disruptions. A new study involving the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), titled “Decoupling food insecurity from shocks: A global analysis of food system resilience,” provides new evidence on what enables countries to maintain food security despite these growing challenges.
)
The research examines whether greater exposure to shocks necessarily translates into worsening food insecurity. Combining indicators from the Food Systems Countdown Initiative with data on shock exposure, governance, economic capacity, trade dependence, and social conditions, the study assesses how different structural factors influence countries’ ability to limit increases in undernourishment during periods of disruption.
One of its central findings is that high exposure to shocks does not automatically result in poorer food security outcomes. Several countries facing recurrent disturbances, particularly in Asia, have continued to improve their food security performance. This suggests that resilience depends not only on the frequency or intensity of shocks, but also on the underlying capacity of national food systems to absorb and adapt to them.
The analysis identifies several factors that can strengthen this capacity. Improvements in GDP per capita, government effectiveness, and food-supply redundancy were associated with lower peaks in undernourishment during periods of disruption. Food-supply redundancy, defined as maintaining multiple sources, channels, or alternatives within the food system, can help prevent individual disruptions from translating into broader shortages.
The research also highlights the importance of social capital in supporting longer-term resilience. Strong social networks, trust, and cooperation can help communities and institutions respond more effectively when crises occur. Conversely, persistent food price volatility emerged as an important source of vulnerability, increasing the likelihood that shocks will negatively affect access to adequate nutrition.
The study provides empirical support for a broader understanding of food-system resilience: building resilience requires more than responding to individual crises. It depends on strengthening the institutions, economic conditions, supply networks, and social structures that allow food systems to continue functioning when disruptions occur.
For sustainable agriculture, these findings reinforce the importance of viewing at food security as a system-wide challenge. Resilient food systems ultimately depend on the capacity to maintain reliable agricultural production and food supplies while adapting to environmental, economic, and geopolitical pressures, making long-term investment in sustainable and resilient production systems increasingly important for global food security.
More information available at:
BÉNÉ, C., SASSO, A., ABDULA, A.-R., BATTERSBY, J., CATTANEO, A. et al., Decoupling food insecurity from shocks: A global analysis of food system resilience, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 123, 38, 2026, p. e2536118123, NATL ACAD SCIENCES, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.1073/pnas.2536118123, JRC144816: link
Food Systems Countdown Initiative: link